Re-exit after quarantine
Faced with the hypothetical possibility of a second wave of SARS CoV 2 England indicates that its people will be prepared, for some scientists generating immunity is an issue that will not be seen as soon as it is presumed.
South Korean scientists have concluded that coronavirus patients cannot relapse after recovering from the disease, even though hundreds of recovered people test positive again, the new findings suggest that, rather than indicating reinfection, Positive results were caused by deficiencies in the standard virus test. They will greatly reassure governments threatened by the nightmarish prospect of an endless cycle of infection and reinfection.
To understand herd immunity we must first think about how the virus grew, we have data that this outbreak arose in the month of November 2019 but it was not until mid-February that it left China and traveled all over the planet, in just 2 months that covered 217 territories this is the entire planet, as of today 3,480,912 cases have been reported with a total of 244,662 victims, this does not make clear that there is no such immunity and as a species we are vulnerable, some politicians believe that the population as they become infected with the virus will generate immunity, but this is not so simple.
If we let people go out to lead a normal life, we would face a real massacre, the people with the greatest vulnerability will automatically become deceased, and those who are within the population with the greatest resistance would only become sources of infection, leaving only A small part of the world population is alive, but that is not all, a group that is also vulnerable are doctors, cleaning personnel and law enforcement officers. If that group of people dies, there will be no one who can continue with the investigation for a possible vaccine. , until today the existing possibility is to generate artificial immunity, that is to say with vaccines.
Each person with Covid-19 can infect 3 people, in a case that R decreases to 0.9 it means that if we have 1000 people infected they are infecting 900 people, if these new infected are not controlled with the indicated security measures can continue to infect more people, in case we achieve herd immunity the scope of infection will remain for a period of time, Sweden suggests keeping confinement in vulnerable people and releasing the youngest, unfortunately Sweden shows a ratio of mortality higher than its neighboring countries, is a Russian roulette.
The development of the outbreak at this rate depends on the effectiveness of the control measures, the scientists who carried out the studies said. But in order to contain the epidemic and change the course of infections, control measures would have to stop transmission in at least 60% of cases.
The death toll from the coronavirus outbreak jumped to 41 on Saturday, with more than 1,400 people infected worldwide, the vast majority in China. “It is unclear at the moment whether this outbreak can be contained within China,” said Neil Ferguson, an infectious disease specialist at Imperial College London who co-led one of the studies.
Ferguson’s team suggests that up to 4,000 people in Wuhan were already infected on January 18 and that, on average, each case was infecting two or three more people. “What we need is more data to be published on risk factors, transmission, incubation period and epidemiology, so that we can understand what control measures are most appropriate,” MacIntyre said.
https://academic.oup.com/epirev/article-abstract/15/2/265/440430?redirectedFrom=fulltext
